It’s finally happened. Daily Fantasy Sports are back. And in this quick article we’re going to break down some of the contests on each site and tell you which to do and which not to do.
IMPORTANT: If you want to do the good contests in DFS during Week 1 you need to buy in right now. The best contests will fill up and they will not be available in 2 weeks. This is a good habit to get into always. You always need to jump into the contests you want very early in the week and buy in. Throw a default lineup in them and change your players around later in the week. This might be the most important DFS decision you make all season
When I say were going to break down contests, I don’t mean whether to do 50/50s or Tournament Style Games (GPP). I mean the individual contests. You might be surprised at the difference between some of these contests. If you want to do this on your own it’s very simple. Pick a contest you want to check out. We’ll use FanDuel’s $2M Sun NFL Million (200k to 1st) as an example. This contest is $6 to enter. There are 392,156 entries available in this contest. But there are a few more important numbers to look at. I like to look at what the odds of winning are in each contest that I do.
In this same contest look at the lowest prize paid out – 98,250th place. The very last paid position will win $12. So 98,250 / 392,156 = .2505 or 25.05%.
So of the total number of players in the contest (392,156), 25.05% will win. That’s pretty good. 1/4th of every player will at least double their money in this contest.
Let’s look at another Let’s look at the $200k Sun NFL Dive (200K Guaranteed) – $1 Entry
In this contest there are 235,294 players and 66,167th place will win $1.50. 29,999th will win $2.00. So here we have a change. In the previous contest the lowest winner got double their money. In this contest the lowest player gets X1.5 their original bet. We’ll calculate both.
Chance of winning X1.5 Original bet – 66,167 / 235,294 = .2812 or 28.12%
Chance of winning X2 Original bet = 29,999 / 235,294 = .1274 or 12.7%
So in this contest your odds of winning are slightly higher than the last contest we reviewed, but your payout will be less. If you go apples to apples with these 2 contests the chance of doubling your money is about half what it was in the $6 entry.
Let’s be real. This is a $1 Contest and your probably only excited if you’re top 10 and make some real money in this contest.
There are also your double ups, triple ups, and quintuple ups. These all basically have a fixed multiplier and win %
All Double Up contests pay double the entry fee and the top 43.5% of players win
All Triple Up Contests pay Triple the entry fee and the top 29% of players win
All Quintuple Up Contests Pay 5X the entry fee and the top 17.4% of players win
The other thing to just keep in mind is the multi entry, vs single entry aspect of contests. Both of the contests we just talked about are unlimited entry. There are some big players out there who will sublmit 100+ Entries to these contests. They will use an algorithm and a large bank role to have a much better shot at winning. The only way to get around this is to find contests that limit entries. In general I look for the best odds of winning with the fewest number of multiple entries. Then I usually take a few shots at the big unlimited entry contests too.
I will also usually do a couple of triple ups or quintuple ups as a baseline to win some of my money back. Those contests are by far the best chance for you to win substantial money week in and week out. I use them to help pay for my shots at the big high dollar contests.
Click the Links to Check Out the Week 1 DFS Break Down Charts in the Reference Section
Remember. Enter them now! Don’t wait.