It’s finally time to break down DFS week 1. Football Season is Here!!! Let’s not waste anytime
Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears
Vegas Odds: Falcons 29 – Bears 22
This is a game where we have one team that is mostly the same, and one team that is very different.
We know who the Falcons are at this point. This was a team with a potent offense that we expect to have some regression this season. The Bears defense is surprisingly good. They one of the 5 best front 7s in the NFL and probably a top 12 secondary. Will the Falcons offense be able to overcome a solid Bears defense.
Matt Ryan was the the QB2 last season, and we don’t think he’ll repeat this upcoming one. Fanduel has him priced at $8,500 and Draft Kings $6,900, He could hit value, but at those prices it seems unlikely.
Devonta Freeman is also quite pricey in this contest coming in at $8300, and $7000. He’s got a tough matchup. Any given Sunday he can have 3 TDs, but again the price is just a little too high in week 1 against a very solid front.
Julio is another Any Given Sunday (AGS) candidate. He can always go off and his ceiling if about as high as any players in the NFL. His price is high on both sites, but you will never hear us tell you not to take a couple shots on Julio when he’s healthy. This isn’t the best matchup for him, but very few can truly “matchup” against Julio.
Turbo Taylor (Taylor Gabriel) and Mohamed Sanu are both pretty inexpensive on both sites in this contest. Taylor is $5100 and $4000 and Sanu is $4800 and $4200. Fanduel has Gabriel as the more expensive receiver and Draft Kings has Sanu as the more expensive receiver. One of the 2 sites is going to be incorrect and it’s our job to tell you which one. Marcus Cooper is the Bears worst corner and he lines up outside basically 100% of the time. With Dan Quinn saying he wants to put Sanu in the slot more this season that means Gabriel should line up across from him outside. So our money is that Gabriel will be the better receiver this week.
The only 2 Bear I will consider this week are Jordan Howard and maybe, maybe Kevin White.
Jordan Howard is $7500 on FD and $6300 on DK. Jordan Howard’s workload is unclear. We’ve seen a lot of running backs in the preseason. If Howard gets the workload he’ll be a good play, as clearly the most talented player on the Bears team. Take a couple shots on Howard, but understand he’s about as risky as they come. If he splits the workload with any of the other Bears running backs, he won’t pay off.
Kevin Whits is one of those flyers that I’ll take a couple shots on this week. He has the most athletic ability of all the receivers on the Bears. I’m not a big fan of Glennon, but White is only $5600 and $4200 respectively. One long TD pass and he hits 2X value. He’s a cheap roll of the dice to keep in mind as you make your contests this week
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Vegas Odds: Jaguars 17.5 – Texans 22.5
This matchup is 2 struggling offenses going up against 2 of the best defenses in the NFL. This game has the lowest Vegas total of any game on this slate. Our advice on this game is AVOID. I don’t think a single player in these contests will be worth their price. The only angle that makes these players interesting, is most of the field playing in the GPP contests will probably feel the same so ownership percentages should be very low.
If I was forced to take a shot on one single player in this contest it would be on Houston wide receiver Braxton Miller. The Jaguars have 2 superstar shut down corners and those corners should play against DeAndre Hopkins and Jalen Strong for most of the game, while Miller gets the cupcake matchup against Aaron Colvin. Colvin is the weakest corner and because of what should be great coverage on the outside I think he will see a lot of volume.
One other note from this game. The Jaguars are third most expensive defense on Draft Kings and the fourth cheapest on FanDuel. Again this is a situation where both sites can’t be right, and if I was to guess who was right I would guess it’s DK. Tom Savage has limited experience against 2 of the top 5 corners in the NFL. His protection is behind a weak offensive line against a pretty scary front 7 in Jacksonville. I think Savage will make some mistakes, and there’s as good a chance as any that the Jaguars pick one off and take it to the house in this game.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Vegas Odds: Eagles 23.75 – Redskins 23.75
This game highlights 2 teams with the same QBs, and same Head Coaches, but an entirely new arsenal of weapons. Carson Wentz and his new receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith add to the existing set of Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz. They also add a new running back to their backfield in Legarrette Blount. They lineup across from Kirk Cousins, who will have Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed, but gets 2 new weapons in Terelle Pryor and either Doctson or Grant as the 3. Josh Doctson hasn’t been able to stay healthy at any point in his career thus far.
The one thing we know about the eagles in this matchup is that Alshon should spend most of his day across from elite corner Josh Norman. This means I will not be suggesting you role out Alshon this week. He has a middle of the road price of $7100 on FD and $5800 on DK. I don’t think he’ll be able to make value in this one. That puts targets across the rest of the field. Nelson Agholor is useless in my opinion. He can’t seem to catch anything.
That leaves Torrey Smith and Zach Ertz. Torrey Smith is the deep threat in this offense and he is near minimum price on both sites. Smith is $5100 on FanDuel and $3700 on Draft Kings. To hit GPP Value out of him we need about 15 points and that is one deep TD pass for Smith. Torrey Smith is a shot worth taking in my opinion. He’s boom or bust, but with Jeffery mostly covered up in this game he should see some deep balls thrown his way.
The last time the Eagles played the Redskins was in week 14 last season. The Redskins defense is basically the same as it was last year, and last year when these teams played against each other Zach Ertz was targeted 13 times and he caught 10 of those target for 112 yards. He led the team in receiving in that game. Zach Ertz is $5900 on FD and $3500 on DK. He’s a pretty reasonably priced option on both sites and has a chance to blow up in this game. I’ll own some shares of Ertz this weekend.
The backfield has one too many options for me to be really confident in any one option and I expect this game to become a bit of a passing battle.
The Redskins have looked pretty shaky in the preseason, and Cousins has to figure out his new weapons. In theory Pryor should be a serious upgrade at receiver and Reed looked healthy in PreSeason week 3 when he played. He should have built in chemistry with Crowder already. The backfield in Washington is a little ugly, and the Eagles front 7 is quite possibly the best in the entire NFL. The Eagles secondary however, might be the worst in the NFL, so that will be where my faith is going. I like the Redskins passing options a lot in this contest.
The question is which passing options to choose. At wide receiver we have several options. The big 2 receivers are Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder. On Fanduel Crowder is more expensive than Pryor and on Draft Kings Pryor is more expensive the Crowder. They are close in price however.
Terrelle Pryor is $6200 on FanDuel and $6100 on Draft Kings. Pryor should spend most of the day matched up against the Eagles best corner Ronald Darby. Pryor is without question the most athletically gifted receiver on the Redskins. In a game about TDs, I think Pryor has the best chance to score for the Redskins offense. His price is low enough to gamble on FanDuel. He is the 29th Wide receiver in pricing in Fanduel. On Draft Kings however, he is the 13th priced WR. I’ll gamble with Pryor on FanDuel in some lineups, but his price is too high on Draft Kings for me.
Crowder is the 23d WR on FD and the 20th WR on Draft Kings. Apparently Draft Kings gives much more credit to the Redskins offensive matchup than Fan Duel does. Crowder is $6500 on FanDuel and $5600 on Draft Kings. Crowder has an outside chance to make value, but his chance of really going off in GPP lineups is pretty slim. Ultimately you need the big boom and Crowder isn’t going to give it you.
Both sites agree that Reed is probably the guy on this offense. He’s the most expensive TE on FanDuel and the second most expensive on Draft Kings. He’s pricy on both sites. That being said he is the only player on this team with 3 TD upside. The head coach of the Redskins is on record saying the offense runs through Reed and he is the TE to own if you can afford him. He’s $7100 on FanDuel and $5900 on Draft Kings.
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Vegas Odds: Cardinals 24 – Lions 24
Here we’ve got 2 teams that we understand. Finally!!! These teams are basically the same teams they were last year, so we should know exactly what to do.
We know the Cardinals and we know the players to target and Public Enemy #1 is David Johnson. For obvious reasons he’s very expensive. David Johnson is $9400 on both sites. We know he’ll get the workload. The only question about Johnson is will his price be worth it. My answer is yes. The Lions secondary is pretty good. Darius Slay is among the elites at his position and should cover Fitzgerald for most of the game. John Brown may or may not be healthy. JJ Nelson is a deep threat who will have 2 beat 2 fantastic safeties. Ultimately I think it will be a challenging day for Palmer, and I think the answer is to get DJ going early and often. My opinion is Johnson should be in a healthy amount of your lineups this week.
I think I’ll be avoiding the Arizona passing attack in this one. If I was going to put my money somewhere it would probably be on John Brown, but I have concerns about his health. If you feel like rolling the dice on him he is $5700 on FD and $4800 on DK
Matt Stafford loves to throw the ball. The Lions have basically come out and said at this point that they don’t care about the run. The Cardinals have a solid secondary however. Are any of the lions receivers worth their price tag this week?
The WR1 for the Lions is Golden Tate. Golden Tate plays out of the slot quite a bit. The Cardinals usually roll the honey badger into the slot to play against the slot receiver and thats not the easiest matchup. Golden Tate is $6900 on FanDuel and $6500 on Draft Kings. Tate is the 12th highest priced receiver on FanDuel and the 11th on Draft Kings so the sites agree that he should do well this week. Or at least they agree that he should be priced the same.
Then you have Marvin Jones the WR2. This is where things get interesting. Marvin Jones is $6100 on FD and $4100 on DK. That’s the 42nd priced WR on Draft Kings and the 30th on Fan Duel. That’s a pretty wide margin. On FanDuel he’s sitting right with guys like Maclin, Fitzgerald, Parker, and Pryor. On Draft Kings he’s down with the Sterling Shepard, Kevin White, and Mohammed Sanus of the world. I really like him as a Draft Kings play. Here’s the conundrum with Jones. If Tate plays most of the game in the slot, he should see a lot of Patrick Peterson. However if Tate lines up outside then Peterson will probably cover Tate. Ultimately he’s not a lock but you should throw him in a few lineups.
As far as the running game goes, Riddick and Abdullah should both see time. The time share worries me enough to avoid the backfield for the lions. Ebron is also interesting, but there are several tight ends I like more than Ebron at his price tag this week.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Vegas Odds: Bills 24 – Jets 17
The first game on the slate is a tank off, but due to the massive changes to these teams since the contests were released there are some serious value players on each team.
As of the writing of this article Tyrod Taylor is still in the concussion protocol. If Nathan Peterman was to get the start in week 1, I would be very afraid of every passing option on the Bills and pretty excited about LeSean McCoy. That being said the Jets defense is the only strength of this team.
There’s a lot of unknowns on this team, and it’s going to take a few weeks for us to figure them out. The only players I’m really thinking about starting in this game are Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy, Charles Clay. I do think there’s a chance that a receiver from Buffalo could have a good game, but I’m not willing to put my stake on any one guy. If I had to guess, I guess I would say Zay Jones, but I think Matthews actually has the best matchup. I’m just not sure he’ll be healthy.
Tyrod’s rushing ability keeps him in the conversation and the offense should run through McCoy in this one. My biggest worry is I’m not sure if the Bills want to win and if they don’t the team they need to lose to is the Jets.
New York Jets:
One of the best plays in DFS is to choose players after the contest comes out when circumstances change. This entire team is different since the contest came out. Again my biggest worry is the teams desire to win. I think there will be at least one player from the Jets that performs really well this week. The Bills secondary is one of the worst in the league after their purge of talent. Most of the Jets players are near minimum salary on both sites. The trick is picking which player will be the one to go off. I expect the McCown to at least be decent and maybe be one of the best values of the week at QB. Then I think either ArDarius Stewart or Robby Anderson will be the receiver to own, but I don’t think there’s any real way to guess who. If we’re lucky maybe we’ll catch a glimpse in preseason week 4
Note*** – After watching the Tiny bit we got to see of McCown this Thursday: If I was nailed down to guess it would be Robby Andersen that I would take the shot on. Kenbrell Tompkins also got a surprising amount of looks in the redzone.
Note 2***** – After the cuts to the 53 man roster Austin Sefarian Jenkins and Kenbrel
Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
Vegas Odds: Raiders 25 – Titans 26.5
This game is the highest projected total of the week by Vegas so ownership percentages will be high. That being said, there will probably be a player or 2 that have a field day in this one. Let’s dive into it.
The raiders have a tough matchup in a solid Titans Defense. They raiders have one of the best offensive lines in football, but they have a rotation at running back that I’m not thrilled about. I don’t think Lynch will be a true workhorse back this season. I think Richard and Washington will see some snaps as well. So, I’ll be avoiding the Raiders backfield although I don’t hate throwing beast mode in a lineup or 2 at his $6900/$5300 price tag.The raiders might want to show off their shiny new running back to their fans.
At Receiver we’ve got the big 2 and then a bit of a mess past that. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree will bounce around the lineup going against Logan Ryan and Adoree Jackson. I smell a rookie corner, and although he’s a talented rookie, he’s bound to make a mistake or 2 and I expect whichever receiver he’s against to capitalize when that happens. Looking at pure size, both corners are 5’11” and both receivers are 6’1″. Since both receivers are similar statistically lets look at price.
Cooper is $7600 on FanDuel and $7200 on Draft Kings. Crabtree is $6900 on FanDuel and $6000 on Draft Kings. Ultimately I think if you want to throw Oakland receivers in your lineup you should probably employ both of them in separate lineups. If I had to choose I’d go with the lower price in Crabtree.
Predicting the Titans is tough as the whole team is pretty different than it was last year. The Titans Offensive line is fantastic and the Raiders defensive line is pretty good. DeMarco Murray is one of few workhorse backs….(I think)…left in the NFL. Watching preseason I felt Demarco Murray distanced his abilities from Derrick Henry, but you never know what the coaches see. The receiving core is also much more impressive than last year. There are 4 legitimate weapons for Mariota to throw to.
Marcus Mariota is $7800 on Fanduel and $6800 on Draft Kings. He’s a middle priced QB he may do very well this week. He’s shown an ability to torch bottom half defenses and the Raiders looked very bad in the preseason. He also has just as much chance as anyone to rush a TD in. I will have several shares of Mariota in DFS week 1.
Demarco Murray is significantly cheaper when compared to the other workhorse running backs of his caliber. Murray is an interesting leverage play when most of the competition will be focused on the high Vegas total and the passing game. If Murray ends up in the end zone twice your leverage over the competition will be enormous. Murray is a better deal on FanDuel than he is on Draft Kings, but I’ll have a couple shares of him on both sites. The Titans could very likely find themselves ahead and playing run out the clock in this one.
Then to the passing attack. Richard Matthews, Eric Decker, Corey Davis,and Delanie Walker.
Eric Decker is the most expensive option on both sites. Decker is $6500 on FanDuel and $5000 on Draft Kings. Eric Decker is one of few players who legitimately has 3 TD upside. I will own my shares of Decker in what should be a high scoring affair. Hi matchup from the slot should also be a good one against slot corner TJ Carrie.
Rishard Matthews will hold down the outside across from Corey Davis. Matthews will likely see the better coverage for most of the day. He is $6100 on FanDuel and comes at a deal on Draft Kings at $4200. His value is much better on DK than it is on FanDuel, but ultimately he’ll be in several of my lineups as well.
Corey Davis is a rookie, and we don’t know for sure what he is yet. He’s unknown and people don’t like the unknown. Is there a possibility that the rookie goes off for 150 yards and 2 TDs and is the best value of all players this week. I think it’s a possibility, however probably not a very likely one. He’s $5500 on Fan Duel and $4000 on Draft Kings. I’ll run him out in a couple too.
Then with all the attention on the receivers I expect Delanie Walker to go a bit forgotten in week 1. He’s still on the more expensive end of Tight Ends and he’s certainly not my favorite choice this week, but I don’t mind him as a leverage play.
One last note to keep in mind is there are a lot of players out there who go to the highest Vegas total of the week and spam the passing options. Is there a chance that this game doesn’t live up to the hype and ends up low scoring and all those players make a mistake. You bet there is. I will have some lineups where I fade this entire game and the close second in Atlanta Chicago. Keep it in mind to separate you from the pack in the GPPs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
Vegas Odds: Buccaneers 23.75 – Dolphins 21.75
The much improved Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Jay Cutler led Miami Dolphins. Vegas is expecting this to be one of the lower scoring affairs of the weekend. On both sides we have some serious volume players to look into.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have several new weapons. But the team will be without their best running back in Doug Martin for the first 3 weeks. They have shown a propensity to target Mike Evans like crazy no matter what. They’ve got new weapons in Chris Godwin, DeSean Jackson, and OJ Howard, but we don’t know exactly how they’ll be used yet. We also know they have most likely a committee at running back with Jaquizz Rodgers and Charles Sims. Lets break em’ down.
Lets start with the Quarter Back. Jameis Winston is $7800 on FD and $6600 on DK. He’s a mid priced option that should be throwing quite a bit. He’s certainly got the weapons to have a good day. Jameis would need to throw for 300 yrs and 2 TDs, or for 200 yards and 3 TDs to hit value in this contest. I think that is certainly in the realm of possibility. I think this comes down to a question of game script and ultimately a bit of a dice roll. Jameis is a talented quarterback, but he has a tendency to occasionally make the “big” mistake. He’s a mobile QB, but not really in the rushing sense. He’s more of a scramble around and throw it generally in Evans direction and hope he catches it sense. The one thing in this game that makes me like Winston is the Dolphins excellent defensive front. I don’t particularly think Jaquizz Rodgers will be successful in this game, which means they’ll have to take to the air which bodes well for Winston. I actually think this game could turn into a shootout between Cutler and Winston and it may go overlooked. I will definitely be rolling out some Jameis Winston / Mike Evans stacks in this week’s contests.
In the backfield we have Jacquizz Rodgers and Charles Sims. Rodgers is $6700 and $4900 and Sims is $5600 and $3900. I don’t think even if Rodgers has a good day it will be enough for him to hit value. We need 20 points out of Jacquizz and I just don’t see it happening. Good the script tilt and we see a lot of Sims though. I think it’s a possibility, especially if Rodgers can’t get it going against Wake, Hayes, Suh, and Harris on the Miami front. I’ll be hedging my bets towards Sims this week.
Mike Evans is the man to own on the Buccaneers. He will see almost guaranteed 10 – 12 targets in this game. He’s an athletic freak and is one of those players that can have 2 or 3 TDs in any matchup. Jameis loves him and they design plays down on the goal line for him. He’s not cheap on either site. He is $8300 on FD and $7800 on DK. He’s the 5th WR on both sites. He needs to have a good day to payoff, but it is always in his wheel house. Evans is almost always worth a gamble.
DeSean Jackson is one of those guys you either love or hate. He’s a bit too expensive for me in this contest. If his price falls enough for him to hit value on 1 70 yard TD catch then I’ll give him a chance. In this contest he’s $6900 on FanDuel and $4900 on Draft Kings. A 70 Yd TD Pass would give him 13.5 on FD or 14 on DK and he would basically need a second one to be a great play in this contest. Count me out on DJAX this week.
The only other option I find myself eyeing on this team is Cameron Brate. He’s a bargain tight end that gets a lot of looks, especially in the red zone. OJ Howard is still a blocking Tight End at this point and Brate is the guy to own. He’s $5200 on FD and $3100 on DK. He’s the TE12 on FD and the TE14 on DK. He’s one of my favorite discount TEs in this week contest.
The Dolphins are an interesting team in DFS this week. When these contests were released Jay Cutler wasn’t even on the team yet. This team has changed quite a bit since these contests were rolled out and that means there are values to be had. Jay Cutler and Devante Parker are probably my favorite stack of week 1 DFS.
Jay Cutler is very cheap, because when these contests were released he was retired. He’s $6700 on FanDuel and $5400 on Draft Kings. He’s an absolute bargain on both sites. On FanDuel he’s priced right in-between Mike Glennon and Jared Goff, and has significantly more upside than both of them. Jay Cutler is going up against a decent defense in Tampa Bay and again, I see some sneaky upside to the point scoring in this game. He’s back with the offensive coordinator that made him great in Adam Game and I will own some significant shares of Cutler in both stacks and by himself this week. There aren’t that many players in each slate that could make it up to 4X and Cutler would need 27 points to do so. I won’t go as far as to say it’s likely, but 375 yards and 3 touchdowns would get it done, and he has done that many times in his career, and it could very well happen again.
There is a version of this game that doesn’t go well for Cutler and that is if Jay Ajayi gets going. The Dolphins have been vocal about their desire to make Ajayi their workhorse back. If they get inside the 5 on the goal line they will run it in for TD almost guaranteed. With pricing in mind, it is much more likely that Cutler hits value than Ajayi. Ajayi is $7800 and $6500 so you need at least 2 TDs and 100 yards for him to be worth his price tag, which in my opinion is basically his ceiling. I won’t have Ajayi in many of my lineups this week.
The receiving options for the Dolphins are worth a look at also. Jay Cutler is a QB who has a tendency to 0 in on one particular receiver. Through the preseason it looks like that guy will be Devante Parker, but let’s look at all the options.
Jarvis Landry is $6400 and $5400. He spends a lot of time in the slot and is basically allergic to the end zone. He also seems to be on his way out in Miami. His ability to catch the ball is among the elite in the NFL and a little exposure is probably a good idea because of his big play ability, but I like some of the other receiving options better.
DeVante Parker is the guy who I’ll be stacking with Jay Cutler when I choose to do so. He is $6300 and $5300. He’s essentially the same price as Landry, but in DFS you want TDs and Landry has shown an inability to get into the end zone. Parker is my favorite option on the Dolphins to catch TDs. Parker looks to be Cutler’s favorite target and the red zone threat on this team.
Kenny Stills is the bargain option on the Dolphins. Kenny Stills is $5600 and $3800 respectively. He’s the cheapest receiver on the Dolphins. Cutler does like to chuck it deep occasionally, so I don’t hate the use of Stills. He’s an interesting pivot Parker who will be much higher owned.
Julius Thomas is a cheap option at TE who has a chance to catch a TD as well. He saw some use in the preseason, so if you need a very cheap option you can throw him in a lineup or 2. He’s $5100 on FD and $2900 on DK.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas Odds: Ravens 19.75 – Bengals 22.75
Another low projected game between division rivals. These 2 teams usually hold each other in check pretty well. I’m not really excited about any options in this game. The Bengals offense is pretty good but I think the Ravens is probably one of the top 5 defenses in the NFL. The Ravens offense is lacking playmakers and the Bengals defense is a little week. I don’t really like any of the matchups in this game. Personally I won’t be rolling out any Bengals against a stiff Ravens defense and I will limit my exposure to Ravens players with a rusty Flacco as well.
I don’t do this often, but I will be avoiding the Bengals team entirely. The Ravens defense is very good and I don’t think the Bengals will be able to do much with their weak offensive line in this game. The only plus I will give to the Bengals in this game is that I think many other people will feel the same way as I do. I expect Bengals player ownership to be extremely low and if someone does go off unexpectedly, it will be a great play to differentiate yourself.
From a game script perspective, I expect the Ravens to get ahead and keep the Bengals at bay with good defensive play. So I don’t hate rolling Terrance West out in a couple lineups. Danny Woodhead may or may not make it for this game. If Danny Woodhead misses, obviously West becomes a better play. If Woodhead plays I don’t think I’ll be playing Terrance West. West is $6400 on FD and $5200 on DK.
The other Ravens player I’d be interested in is Jeremy Maclin. Maclin is probably the Ravens best offensive weapon. Don’t forget the years of fantastic production from him when he was on a very similar Eagles offense. Maclin is $6100 on FD and $5000 on DK. He’s a good mid range option. My caution with him is whether or not Flacco is truly healthy and ready to go. I think he’ll be on the field, but I’m always nervous with back injuries.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Vegas Odds: Steelers 28 – Browns 19
This is a division game also, but it’s against the Cleveland Browns. That being said the Browns are a much improved team. The Browns have a lot of rookies on this team, and I think most of them are very good rookies. But, they’re rookies and it will take them some time to acclimate to the NFL. The Steelers have a fantastic offense and the Browns are starting a rookie QB that will probably struggle to score. So from a game script perspective the Steelers should get ahead and run the ball and play defense, and the Browns should be trying to catch up and passing a lot.
Roethlisberger is away in this game. We all know about the home road splits of Roethlisberger. I also don’t really think he’ll need to pass in this game. I think they’ll throw the ball here and there, but I think the Steelers running game is where you want to put your chips.
Le’Veon Bell is expensive. He’s $9300 and the second most expensive RB on FanDuel and $9800 and the most expensive RB on Draft Kings. Ultimately, I think he’s probably worth it. My only concern is if the Steelers get too far ahead will they bring in Conner instead of Bell. That being said I think Bell is good for at least 100 yards and a TD on the ground. That’s only about half of where he needs to be to hit value though. You must have exposure in your lineups to Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson and I will be paying up for the 2 of them together in some lineups.
Antonio Brown is pricey at $9100 on FD and $8800 on DK. He can go crazy in any game. I don’t think he’ll need to go crazy in this game though. I’ll wait to play Antonio Brown in a future matchup.
The other player I’ll consider is the Steelers new toy in Vance McDonald. He’s a cheap option who just needs a couple receptions and a TD to hit value. He’s $4700 and $2800. He’s a roll of the dice I’ll have here and there.
The Steelers defense is the last mention I have on this team. They’re an expensive defense this week, but they’re going up against a rookie QB and what is basically a new team on offense. Also, Joe Haden just jumped ship on the Browns and joins the Steelers defense. He should be able to see exactly what the Browns offense is doing and give the Steelers D and extra edge in this matchup. They’re not my favorite defense of the week, but I’ll throw them in here and there.
The Browns are all very inexpensive in this matchup. The Steelers defense isn’t that good either. Joe Haden comes across the field for a revenge matchup against his old team, but there are some significant weaknesses in the Steelers secondary. The Steelers front 7 is pretty decent and their going against a rookie QB, but does anyone’s price merit a shot this week?
Kizer is as cheap as they come at QB. He’s $6000 on FD and $4800 on DK. Just a mediocre day and he’ll hit value. 200 yards and 2 TDs would put him at 16 points and worth the price tag. He also has some running upside. It wouldn’t shock me to see Kizer take one into the end zone on the ground. I will have Kizer in exactly 1 lineup on each site, and I will most likely pair him with this next player.
Corey Coleman and DeShone Kizer seemed to have a connection in the preseason. In my one Browns lineup I will pair Coleman and Kizer. Coleman is $5700 and $4400. In a game where the Browns will have to play catchup I think rookie QB Kizer will lean on his favorite weapon in Coleman, and if the duo has a good day they’ll be fantastic values.
I won’t be rolling the dice on any other Browns players this week, but I can make a case for Duke Johnson and Kenny Britt as well. I’ll plant my flag at Corey Coleman, but if you think Britt or Duke Johnson will be the guy this week when the Browns are playing catchup, go for it.
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams
Vegas Odds: Colts 25 – Rams 22
This is a game where we’ve got a few unknowns. As of the writing of this article Andrew Luck is off the PUP list, but we don’t know for sure if he’s going to play week1. If he misses it changes the Colts team drastically. We’ve also heard news that Aaron Donald and the Rams are far apart in their negotiations. Donald changes the defense drastically. The Colts Offensive line is terrible and their defense is not very good. The Rams offense struggled last season and we don’t know if we’re gonna get good preseason week 2 Jared Goff or terrible preseason week 3 Jared Goff
We’ve got 2 options at QB for the Colts. Luck is pretty pricy at $8100 and $6500, but that’s because we know what he can do. He’s a 30 point threat when he’s on the field. With his limited prep this off season and coming off of an injury Luck scares me. I might roll him out in one, but for the most part I am avoiding him this week.
Scott Tolzien is cheap! He’s basically the cheapest QB you can roll out, but obviously, you’ll have to wait and see if it’s Luck or Tolzien that takes the field. Scott Tolzien is $6000 on FD and $4500 on DK. If he’s the starter for the Colts I will have him out there in several lineups, where I can stack the rest of the field.
Frank Gore could be the forgotten man in this contest. If it is Tolzien I’d expect the Colts to put an emphasis on running the ball. Gore isn’t fun to put in your lineup. It will probably bring your mood down just to look at him, but he’s $6000 on FD and $4300 on DK. You are very happy with 20 points out of gore and that is certainly in his wheel house. I’ll have some exposure to Frank Gore in lineups this week.
TY Hilton is the leading pass catcher for the Colts and his price tag is $8000 and $6900. He’s a touch too pricy for me with his lack of TDs. He’s another “Any Given Sunday” candidate though. He can always take a 5 yard screen 75 yards for a TD. I’ll probably stack TY with Tolzien or Luck somewhere, and maybe a lineup or 2 elsewhere, but I don’t expect him to pay off this week.
Donte Moncrief is an interesting play this week. I spoke of my rule earlier and if a player can hit value on a 70 yard TD I’ll take some shots on them. Donte Moncrief is $5900 and $5000. He won’t quite hit value on one play, but he’ll be pretty close and with Hilton facing decent coverage against Trumaine Johnson all day, I think he’ll probably catch 5 or 6 passes. If you want a Colts receiver in your lineup this is the one I’ll be taking shots with.
If and only if Andrew Luck is the QB I’ll role out Jack Doyle in some lineups. Andrew Luck loves his Tight Ends. Doyle is $5100 and $3700 and he’s worth a couple shots, but again only if Luck is on the field.
Los Angeles Rams:
The Rams are complicated. I would be lying if I told you I knew which Rams to roll out this week. Jared Goff has shown some good and mostly bad in the preseason. The colts defense isn’t very good. So there is some potential here for the Rams, but the question is who, and will they capitalize on it. The Colts lost their best corner in Vontae Davis, so Watkins may be facing a backup all day.
Jared Goff is pretty inexpensive at $6600 and $4800. If you listen to the show you know I’m a Goff fan, but I don’t think I can pull the trigger on him in this game. I might throw one or two Rams lineups out there, but probably only in the DK .25 contest because I won’t expect good things from it. If for some reason it does happen you’ll be in major low owned player territory though.
Todd Gurley is $7300 on FD and $6000 on DK. He’s a mid price option that should get lot’s of work. I can justify rolling Gurley out there, but I worry the game script won’t be in his favor. I think you should have some exposure to Gurley, because he may see 30 carries in this game and a 120 and 2 day isn’t out of the question.
Sammy Watkins should face backup coverage filling in for Vontae Davis in this game. That is most likely rookie CB Quincy Wilson. Watkins is $6900 on FanDuel and $6200 on Draft Kings. He could teach the rookie a few things and have a good day out there.
Cooper Kupp is the other player I’d roll out from this team. Him and Goff seemed to have a good connection in the preseason. He’s a major bargain at $4900 on FD and $3700 on DK. He’s probably my favorite option from this team this week. I will have Kupp in some lineups, but full disclosure, I’m a bit of a fanboy of his.
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Vegas Odds: Seahawks 23.25 – Packers 26.25
The Fail Mary rematch pits Rodgers and the Packers against Wilson and the Seahawks. There should be lots of relevant players in this contest. It’s one of the higher scoring affairs of the weekend.
Russel Wilson is one of my favorite QB plays of the week. He’s not cheap at $8000 on FanDuel and $6900 on Draft Kings. He should have a great day against a weak Packers secondary. He also has that rushing floor and he has looked fantastic during the preseason. I will have Wilson in several lineups this week.
If you understand what’s going on in the Seahawks backfield please give me a call, because I’m confused. Players in that backfield should b very low owned in this contest while everyone is trying to figure them out. I will be not by buying in on any Seahawks running backs this week.
The top receiver for the Seahawks is Doug Baldwin. Maybe even more so now with Jermaine Kearse leaving for Cleveland. Baldwin is reasonable at $7500 and $6700 on both sites. Advanced Metrics say that him and Wilson are one of, if not the best stack in fantasy football. I will be running that stack in some of my lineups this week.
Jimmy Graham is a pricy option at Tight End at $6200 on FD and $5100 on DK, but he has seen a lot of red zone usage during the preseason. I wouldn’t be stunned to see 2 TDs from Graham this weekend and if that happens, he will pay off big time.
Green Bay Packers:
Aaron Rodgers isn’t the top QB option on either site, which is a bit of a miracle in my opinion. He’s #2 on FanDuel at $8300 and #3 on Draft Kings at $7000. His price is low enough that he’s probably worth the gamble. Aaron Rodgers in a high scoring affair is a player you must trot out in some of your lineups.
Ty Montgomery is the back to own in this contest. His price is reasonable as well and he should see quite a bit of passing volume coming his way too. He’s $6600 on FD and $5800 on DK. He’s one of few running backs you can pair with a QB as well. I’ll have at least one major Packers stack and Montgomery will be a part of that.
Jordy Nelson and Aaron Rodgers are like Peanut Butter and Jelly. You have to stack them here and there. I think the Packers will put Nelson opposite of Sherman, which will probably limit Adams day and make Jordy the clear favorite. He’s one of my favorite options of the week at $7700 and $7600. He’s under the elite pricing and should see a lot of work.
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers
Vegas Odds: Panthers 27 – 49ers 21
This contest pits the new look Panthers against the new look 49ers. Both teams should have a very different look this season. The unknown of this contest may scare some players away, which is exactly why you should look heavily into it.
The Panthers should look a little different than they did last year. They should employ more of a shorter passing game with Christian McCaffrey.
Cam Newton is a little too pricy for me this week. We’ll have to see if the short passing game can make him a better passer. At $7900 on FD and $7100 on DK, I won’t have any of Cam this weekend.
The 2 players from Carolina I’m interested in are Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess.
Kelvin Benjamin is $6500 on FaDuel and $5900 on Draft Kings. His price seems low to me on both sites. I think he’s the top TD option for the Panthers and I will have him in several lineups.
Funchess is a player I’ve hyped all offseason. He isa bargain this week at $5100 on FD and $4300 on DK. He’s a boom bust player, but the rule we’ve talked bout says a 70 yard TD would put him right at value so I will toss him into some lineups this week.
San Francisco 49ers:
Brian Hoyer is another bargain QB. He’s $6400 and $5100. He’s the 22nd QB on DK and the 28th QB on FD. I think he’ll exceed his value in this contest and I will have Hoyer in lineups this weekend.
Carlos Hyde is the guy in this backfield. The 49ers cut Tim Hightower and Kapri Bibbs in their roster cuts. Joe Williams is hurt so that leaves Hyde and Breida. Hyde should get the volume for this offense. He’s $6800 and $4600 respectively. I worry that the 49ers will probably be playing catchup and I don’t think I’ll be playing Hyde many places in this contest.
I saw some flashes from Breida in preseason and he’s basically the cheapest running back you can start this week. He’s $4700 on FanDuel and $3000 on DK and if he gets even a little work he could exceed his value easily. Start him as a flyer and star stud the rest of your lineup.
Until we see this offense in action it’s hard to predict which receiver to start. I think both options are reasonable with Garcon at $6600 and $5300 and Goodwin at $5400 and $3200. I really like Goodwin on DK this week, but I’ll spread them out and play them both in different lineups.
Be sure to listen as we break all these teams down on the show this week and definitely listen in to the Pick 6 episode where we choose our favorites!
Good Luck 6 Pack!!!!