DFS INJURY STRATEGY
THE INJURY STRATEGY
The injury strategy is pretty simple, and is something a lot of players try to use when they get serious about DFS. Simplified, DFS is all about finding value with each player in your lineup. If you want those superstars in your lineup, you are going to have to pay a high salary for them most weeks. If you spend a big chunk of your salary on those guys you will usually find yourself searching through a bunch of cheap mediocre players who’s names you barely recognize. There is an easy way to find a cheap player to plug into your lineup. Look for injuries.
When a starter gets injured the pricing matrix on Fanduel usually doesn’t compensate enough for the increased value of the backup. This happens more often at the runningback and quarterback postion than most others. Let’s use an example.
Say Tom Brady gets hurt in week 7 and can’t play in week 8. As you look at week 8 you will see Tom Bradys price still up around 7500-8000. Brady’s backup Garrapolo though will be way down on the list. His price will certainly increase from the news of Brady’s injury, but it won’t even be close to the price that Brady was before the injury. This is even more effective when a running back goes down. A backup running back behind a good offensive line can be very effective, even if they are not as talented as the starter. There is one situation when the Injury Strategy is even more effective though.
THE MONDAY NIGHT INJURY
Fanduel releases all the following weeks contests right after the Sunday Night Football game ends on Sunday night. The Monday night game hasn’t happened yet, but most or all of the Monday night players will be playing on Sunday the following week. The benefit here is that the prices of these players end up getting locked before they play on Monday. This means that Fanduels pricing matrix can’t account for a Monday night player’s injury at all. What do we mean? Here’s an example.
Let’s say the saints play the cowboys on Monday night 10/2/17. It is currently 10/1/17. Sunday nights games are over and Fanduel releases the contests for the following Sundays games. These games take place on Sunday 10/8/17. At this point all the prices for all the players get locked because players will begin entering these contests immediately. Even after the Monday game is over no player prices will change. Let’s say you think Ezekiel Elliot will have a good game against the saints because the Cowboys offensive line is so good, and the Saints defensive line struggles. Ezekiel Elliot is $8700 and his backup Alfred Morris is $5400. Now you are watching Monday nights game and Ezekiel Elliot gets hurt and wont be able to play next week. Alfred Morris just became a much better play against the saints, but it’s too late. The prices are already locked and Fanduel can’t account for the injury. Ezekiel Elliot will stay $8700 and Alfred Morris will stay $5400. But, Alfred Morris is now much, much more valuable. When you see a Monday night injury, it is an opportunity for a major value the following week in DFS.
This is just one more tool to put in your belt. Injuries are an important factor to consider everyweek as you make your lineups in DFS. That being said, you can’t always lock the injury backup in because it seems like a value. You always have to consider that you are playing a backup who doesn’t have the talent and the experience that the other 31 running backs you are not starting do. Lucky for you, all you need to do is tune into the podcast each week and we will tell you which stars and which backups belong in your lineup.