The Rules Of Weather And Fantasy Football
Weather can have a big effect on fantasy football. But in what way does weather affect teams and individual players? What are the rules to follow? Are there patterns with weather or is it just random?
In this article we are going to tell you the 3 rules of weather to put into practice in your fantasy football lineups. You can use these strategies in both traditional season long fantasy football as well as daily fantasy sports.
Don’t Over React
Don’t over react to weather. More often than not, weather isn’t as big of a factor as it’s cracked up to be. It will impact some players more than others, which we’ll get into later. Temperature in particular can be almost completely ignored. If the weather is clear, it doesn’t matter if it’s 90*F or 12*F players are going to find a way to perform. Just because your stud wide receiver is playing in 3*F weather doesn’t mean you should avoid them. Play your studs like normal. Weather will slow offenses down, but it also makes it harder for defenses to react to the movements of offensive players. In the end it comes out about even.
Rain and Snow favor the Run
As a general rule, high winds, heavy rain or heavy snow will favor the running backs. Last year the worst two games, as far as these factors are concerned, were the week 13 matchup between the 49ers and the Bears, and the week 14 game between the Steelers and the Bills.
Let’s break these games down.
The 49ers Bears game was played in weather with a high of 35*. 100% chance of precipitation and 2-4” of wet snow during the game. What was the result? The 2 teams combined for 227 yards through the air with 0 TDs. The running backs combined for 241 yards and 3 Tds. The Niners were pretty inept in this game if you remember. Colin Kaepernick couldn’t figure it out and the game ended 26 – 3 for a Chicago win. But the point to take away is the running backs had a good day. You could attribute the bears success in that they were going against the league’s worst rushing defense, but Carlos Hyde had a pretty good day with 92 yards on 20 attempts as well. That’s 4.6yards a carry for Hyde and 117 yards on 32 carries with 3 TDs for Jordan Howard(3.7 Yds/Carry). The big thing to look at is opportunity. The running backs were given 52 carries between them to get it done because of the poor weather conditions.
The Steelers vs. Bills game was much closer. Steelers won the game 27 – 20. The game was played in Buffalo and heavy snow was expected during the game with a high that day of 33*F. The particular storm that was in Buffalo was expected to leave 2 feet of snow behind. What happened statistically speaking? Everyone remembers this game as LeVeon Bell’s 50 point fantasy day. Let’s break it down.
Game script got a hold of this one a bit, and Buffalo was forced to pass by the third quarter. The Steelers had a 21 – 7 lead going into the 4th quarter so Buffalo’s couldn’t stay on the ground. But don’t be fooled by the rushing box score. They threw a lot of short passes to McCoy and ran through the air. We’ll take the RBs receiving into account as well.
LeVeon Bell had 38 Carries for 236 yards and 3 TDs. He also caught 4 passes for 62 yards. The Steelers other superstar Antonio Brown went 5 for 78 and 0 TDs. The snow made it the LeVeon Bell show that day. LeSean McCoy went 12 for only 27 yards and 1TD on the ground, but short passes added 6 receptions for 81 yards. There were 6 carries that did not go to McCoy as well.
Just remember – high wind, heavy rain, heavy snow means look to the running backs for production.
Dome teams and Southern teams are more affected by weather than everyone else.
Southern teams that are used to warm weather or some teams that play in domes don’t like the cold weather. When I say some teams I basically mean the teams in the South that play in domes. For instance Minnesota plays in a dome, but they do just fine in the cold. The Falcons, Jaguars, Dolphins, Titans, Buccaneers, Panthers and Saints are the most affected by weather. You will notice a tendency in these teams to generally be better at home than away as well. They live and work most of the time in nice warm places so they just aren’t the same when the weather isn’t ideal.
Those are your big 3 rules for weather in fantasy football. Keep in mind that there is no perfect rule in fantasy football. Anything can happen any given Sunday. If you use these rules, more often than not, you will come out on top though. Here’s one last rule to follow for weather. Kickers hate bad weather. If there is rain or wind or snow and you don’t have Justin Tucker, then snag a kicker off of waivers who gets to play in good weather. Good luck out there 6 Pack!!!